R. A. Fisher's Fiducial Argument and Bayes' Theorem

R. A. Fisher's Fiducial Argument and Bayes' Theorem

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The Proper Fiducial Argument

The paper describes the proper interpretation of the fiducial argument, as given by Fisher in (only) his first papers on the subject. It argues that far from being a quaint, little, isolated idea, this was the first attempt to build a bridge between aleatory probabilities (the only ones used by Neyman) and epistemic probabilities (the only ones used by Bayesians), by implicitly introducing, as ...

A Formal Frobenius Theorem and Argument Shift

A formal Frobenius theorem, which is an analog of the classical integrability theorem for smooth distributions, is proved and applied to generalize the argument shift method of A. S. Mishchenko and A. T. Fomenko to finite-dimensional Lie algebras over any field of characteristic zero. A completeness criterion for a commutative set of polynomials constructed by the formal argument shift method i...

Discrete Bayes with R

A rough set view on Bayes' theorem

Rough set theory offers new perspective on Bayes’ theorem. The look on Bayes’ theorem offered by rough set theory reveals that any data set (decision table) satisfies the total probability theorem and Bayes’ theorem. These properties can be used directly to draw conclusions from objective data without referring to subjective prior knowledge and its revision if new evidence is available. Thus, t...